Mandal Politics Deconstructed

Some pundits feel that the protests from the student, academic & business community will make little difference to the quota regime debate. Finally what will tilt the scales is Sonia Gandhi’s performance at the hustings. So I’ve done a scenario analysis of the Assembly Polls. If you’re pro-Mandal, hope for Scenario-1. If you’re pro-Merit, pray for Scenario-4.

SCENARIO-1

Assam
Congress wins

Tamil Nadu
DMK + Congress + Left Wins

Kerala
UDF wins

West Bengal
Leftists win

Result
Congress will attribute victory to Sonia’s sacrifices and Mandal.

Repercussions
Congress will implement Mandal aggressively with an eye on OBC votes in the cow belt. Left will be forced to stick with Congress.

After Effects
49.5% at all private colleges will become a reality. Demand for reservations in private companies will grow.

SCENARIO-2

Assam
Congress wins

Tamil Nadu
DMK + Congress + Left wins

Kerala
LDF wins

West Bengal
Leftists win

Result
Congress will attribute victory to Sonia’s sacrifices. Leftists & DMK will pressurize congress to implement Mandal.

Repercussions
Congress will be forced to implement Mandal.

After Effects
49.5% at all private colleges will become a reality.

SCENARIO-3

Assam
Hung Assembly. Congress forms government with difficulty.

Tamil Nadu
DMK + Congress + Left wins

Kerala
LDF wins

West Bengal
Leftists win

Result
Congress will get cautious. Leftists very aggressive.

Repercussions
Congress will drag its feet as it won’t want to lose its middle class base. Leftists will start pressurizing the government. Might even topple the UPA government over this issue.

After Effects
49.5% regime might be referred to a committee.

SCENARIO-4

Assam
Hung Assembly. AGP forms government.

Tamil Nadu
AIADMK wins

Kerala
LDF wins

West Bengal
Leftists win

Result
Congress will get introspective. Mandal will be blamed. Third Front will get jubilant.

Repercussions
Left parties might entertain visions of coming to power by tying up with the Third Front. Might dump Congress over Mandal implementation. Congress will bury the Mandal report but might be forced to take a stand on it in its Manifesto for the next Lok Sabha elections.

After Effects
49.5% implementation will be deferred till next Lok Sabha election. Or till Supreme Court clarifies the position.

NOTE: I’ve not mentioned BJP anywhere as it’s irrelevant in the poll. If it manages to do well in Assam and Scenario-4 happens, BJP might play the same game as Congress. As in, dilly dally over Mandal.