Thursday, May 11, 2006

Vital Stats of the Tamil Nadu Polls

If you wanna know the real story, just pore over these numbers:

Votes polled by DMK Alliance: 44.6% (163 seats)
DMK - 26.5% (96 seats)
Congress - 8.4%(34 seats)
PMK - 5.4% (18 seats)
CPM - 2.7% (9 seats)
CPI - 1.6% (6 seats)

Votes polled by AIADMK Alliance: 39.8% (69 seats)
AIADMK - 32.5% (61 seats)
MDMK - 6.0% (6 seats)
DPI - 1.3% (2 seats)

Votes polled by DMDK aka Vijayakanth's party: 8.33% (1 seat)
Brilliant performance for a new comer.To score more or less the same votes as the Congress and to emerge as the No.4 party in Tamil Nadu after beating the likes of MDMK, PMK, BJP, CPM & CPI is no mean achievement! It is to be remembered that DMDK played spoiler to the AIADMK alliance in 92 seats. While it affected the chances of the DMK alliance in 43 seats.

Votes polled by BJP: 2%
BJP lost nearly 1.2% votes in this election. This after getting Thirunavukarassar on board. BJP also lost 4 seats. It fared well in Colachel, Hosur, Killiyur, Madurai East, Padmanabhapuram, Pudukottai, Thirumayam, Thiruvattar, Vilavancode & Nagercoil.

Votes polled by Lok Paritran: 0.11%
Excellent performance by any standards. In Anna Nagar, LP finished third with 11665 votes. In Mylapore, again LP finished third with 9436 votes. In T.Nagar, LP stood fourth, polling 6323 votes. Contrast this with BJP's performance. In Anna Nagar, BJP scored 7897 votes. In Mylapore, BJP supported Chandralekha got 2898 votes. In T.Nagar, the BJP supported Mukta Srinivasan got just 4234 votes.

Forward Block polled 0.3% while SP got 0.2%. BSP aka Pudhiya Tamizhagam bested these parties by polling 0.8%.

DMK lost 4%, PMK lost 0.2%, ADMK, MDMK, DPI & CPM gained 1% each. Congress gained a significant 6%.

To sum up, the DMK alliance beat AIADMK alliance by 5% points and ended up winning 94 more seats. For all the hype, AIADMK was able to bring no additional votes to the table compared to the Lok Sabha election. So the reason for Amma's defeat squarely rests on her shoulders. The benefits of her performance and her goodwill among women was felt only in Chennai, Coimbatore and Madurai. My gut feel is she lost a significant chunk of votes to Vijaykanth's party. The same is the case with Karunanidhi.

Note: I was bang on with DMK's vote percentage. But was off mark by 3% while predicting the ADMK votes.

Facts courtesy: Election Commission.


Anonymous Abi said...

"... DMDK played spoiler to the AIADMK alliance in 92 seats. While it affected the chances of the DMK alliance in 43 seats."

Can one be sure about this conclusion? Isn't it possible that Captain managed to pull voters away from both the major alliances in equal measure? If that's so, it wouldn't make any difference to the result (except, of course, the two alliances would have raked in 4% more votes each).

So, is there any dat (exit poll, for example) for how the Captain supporters would have voted if DMDK wasn't in the fray? Just curious.

10:52 PM  

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